The ongoing Iran war is raising alarms about food security across Africa, with dire implications for its most vulnerable populations. As the conflict escalates, fertiliser prices are skyrocketing, threatening agricultural production in regions already struggling to feed their people.
Since the onset of the war, the price of urea—a key ingredient in fertilisers—has surged by as much as 70%. This spike is largely due to disruptions in ammonia supplies, which have had a cascading effect on fertiliser production. The ripple effects are felt most acutely in sub-Saharan Africa, where countries like Ethiopia and Kenya rely heavily on agricultural imports.
African nations import a staggering amount of their food despite having the potential to produce more. In fact, 35% of the world’s supply of urea comes from Gulf states, making these countries particularly vulnerable to fluctuations caused by geopolitical tensions. The situation is dire—S&P Global reported that food supply chains are facing unprecedented challenges due to restrictions on fuel and fertiliser.
Key statistics:
- Urea price increase: 60% to 70% since the war began.
- Africa’s dependency on imported food despite agricultural potential.
- EU grant aid: up to €50,000 for farmers impacted by the conflict.
Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara International—the world’s largest fertiliser company—has voiced his concerns. “The most important thing we can do now is raise the alarm on what we are seeing right now—that there is a risk of a global auction on fertiliser that means it becomes unaffordable for those most vulnerable,” he stated. He emphasized that farmers need support but also urged them to treat farming like a business.
As these challenges mount, many farmers are left feeling hopeless. One individual shared, “Farming only leads to financial losses. I’d rather work as a day labourer and earn 100 to 200 baht a day just to get by.” This sentiment echoes through rural communities across the continent as they grapple with rising costs and diminishing returns.
The EU’s announcement of grant aid offers some relief but may not be enough to offset the broader economic impacts. With continued volatility in fertiliser prices and potential shortages looming, the stakes couldn’t be higher for millions relying on stable food sources. The next few months will be critical as nations navigate this complex web of challenges.
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